The Polling organisations all agree that Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives are well ahead of the other parties with less than a week to go to the election. 

I’ve been following Mainstreet Research who project a PC win here in Newmarket-Aurora. Their latest analysis is derived from a survey of 1,243 adults, 18 years or older, living in Ontario.

“The survey is intended to represent the voting population in Ontario.”

Mainstreet asked the respondents how likely they were to vote in the upcoming Ontario election.

A staggering 82% said they were certain to vote. And 10% said they were likely to vote.

If this is indeed the case it will be a huge turnaround from June 2022 when Ontario had its lowest election turnout ever.

That said, polling organisations deliver results. Otherwise they would be out of business.

Extraordinary

But can Ontario-wide surveys capture local opinion in individual ridings where extraordinary things are happening?

What about the latest revelations about Dawn Gallagher Murphy in Newmarket-Aurora? 

The incumbent is being denounced by no fewer than eleven former employees who accuse her of bullying, harassment and racism.

I have never seen anything like it.

She is by their own account foul-mouthed and blasphemous. She spends taxpayers’ money on shameless self-promotion.

She refuses to attend debates with the other candidates.

Irony and self-awareness

In her first speech in the Chamber at Queen’s Park on 10 August 2022 she congratulated all the other members present. Without a hint of irony she said:

“Congratulations to you all! Putting your name forward on a ballot, going through the election process and receiving the support of your family, friends and volunteers is truly a unique experience, one I believe is a test of our dedication and commitment to our communities. Bravo to all of you for your strength, both mentally and physically. Well done!”

And this was from someone who in 2022 boycotted all election debates. And now in 2025 she has done it again!

Clearly, Gallagher Murphy does not consider debates with other candidates part of the “election process”.

Chris Ballard has challenged her to a one-on-one debate but she ignores him rather than jumping at the opportunity to defend her record and make her case.

No need to engage

She has made the calculation she doesn’t need to engage with the other candidates. She has identified her support, micro-targets her voters, lavishes money on them, plays to their agendas and gets them to the polling stations. 

338Canada has Newmarket-Aurora down as a “likely” PC hold with the Liberals being given a less than 5% chance of winning.

The pollster Eric Grenier characterises “safe” seats as ridings where a party has a very high likelihood of winning the seat. He says:

“Only an enormous error in the polls, the projection model or a very powerful local dynamic would result in another party winning the riding.”

Parapet

We need to see more of Gallagher Murphy’s former employees stick their heads above the parapet and speak out, not anonymously, but as named individuals. 

We shall see soon enough if there is a powerful local dynamic in play here in Newmarket-Aurora.

Or do we have to suffer this fraud for another four years?

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