The man behind the CBC's Poll Tracker, Eric Grenier, today puts the Liberals back as likely winners in Newmarket-Aurora.

Grenier defines "likely" this way: The party has a high likelihood of winning the seat, though there is an outside chance (less than 5%) that another party could win.

Meanwhile the NDP is nowhere to be seen. Their candidate, Anna Gollen, remains totally invisible with no website or phone number with only a week to go before advanced voting begins. 

Gollen doesn't appear on the NDP's list of candidates. As I've said before, she is a paper candidate who is blowing a raspberry at the voters.

NDP vote imploding

In these circumstances it is little wonder that NDP inclined voters are moving across to the Liberals as the only show in Town. (The CBC's Vote Compass is here.)

As it happens, this morning I saw the irrepressible Darryl Wolk out canvassing with others on the street where I live. He is a dyed-in-the-wool Conservative, always ebulient and cheerful and disarmingly frank in his views. He will be knocking on doors up until the last moment.

As it stands, things look nailed down for the Liberals but we wait for the Leaders' debates in Montreal on 16 April (French) and 17 April (English).

This election, more than most, is laser focussed on the Party Leaders. For many voters the local candidates are an afterthought and don't come into the equation.

If Pierre Poilievre is to change the trajectory of the Trump Tariff election the debates will be his last big opportunity.

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 Update on 14 April 2025: The Writ/Poll Tracker says the Liberals are still the likely winners.