This is the first February election since 1883 and as I tap this out huge swaths of Ontario are blanketed in deep snow. Doug Ford pitched us into this unnecessary election in the depths of winter, telling us he is the man to save us from Trump’s tariffs. 
He is also the guy who celebrated Trump’s election last November.
The Party Leaders' election debate tonight had few surprises. Ford insisted the others would raise taxes and he wouldn’t. Bonnie Crombie was hyper throughout, over-rehearsed and slightly manic. Marit Stiles was composed with some good lines but had few memorable zingers. Mike Schreiner was cool, calm and collected and scored some points.
But in the Legislature Ford, Crombie, Stiles and Schreiner will have one vote – just the same as the person we are about to elect to represent us in Newmarket-Aurora. So who should we vote for?
Leans to the Right
The Provincial electoral district of Newmarket-Aurora is wealthier than the average Ontario riding and leans to the right. Since its creation in 2006 the area has been represented in the Provincial Parliament by Progressive Conservatives (PCs) except for the period 2014-2018 when it returned a Liberal, Chris Ballard, who is running again in this election.
In the latest census (2021) no fewer than 17% of Newmarket households and 22% of Aurora households declared incomes over $200,000.
32% of all households in Newmarket and 37% in Aurora had household incomes over $150,000. (And these figures were collected in 2020 and would now have to be revised sharply upwards.)
In 2018, when the Liberals were uniquely unpopular, the NDP nudged the Liberals into third place. But, generally speaking, Newmarket-Aurora is not fertile ground for the NDP.
The pollsters tell us the election in Newmarket Aurora is pretty much decided. But what, if anything, could upend their predictions at this late stage?
Tactical Voting
Things could change if enough people were to vote tactically – that is, not for the Party of their first choice but for the Party with the best chance of defeating the incumbent, the deeply flawed Dawn Gallagher Murphy.
She was hand-picked by Doug Ford as the PC candidate for Newmarket-Aurora - as someone who would do his bidding. Members of the local Party had no say.
Lowest voter turnout in history
Ford’s PCs won the 2022 provincial election with the lowest voter turnout in Ontario's election history. Here in Newmarket-Aurora, more people voted against Gallagher Murphy than voted for her. But she got in because the opposition was divided.
I’ve written a lot about Gallagher Murphy’s record of bullying and harassing her employees. Lots of people who have had dealings with her have been in touch with me since August last year. I never solicited these approaches. But their stories say something about the kind of person she is. Gallagher Murphy saves her smiles for the camera.
When the cameras are switched off we see a darker and more sinister Gallagher Murphy.
Call out bullying when you see it
She gets away with it, in large part, because of her brass neck.
In a statement to the Legislature on 22 February 2023 she told MPPs she welcomed the opportunity to stand in the Chamber to raise awareness against bullying:
“It is important that bullying behaviour is called out when you see it. It is also important to simply offer support and connect with people being bullied.”
And yet a long line of her former employees – and over an extended period - accuse the same Gallagher Murphy of prolonged, merciless bullying which affected their health.
Toxic work environment
Teena Bogner started working for Gallagher Murphy on 9 April 2024. She only lasted a few months. She told the Ontario Labour Relations Board:
“On May 10, 2024, Dawn Gallagher Murphy hosted the Premier for a constituency tour. During a funding announcement that morning, the Mayor of Newmarket, John Taylor, indicated he would attend the tour, which was meant to be confidential. Dawn Gallagher Murphy became agitated, incorrectly assuming I had disclosed the tour details. This led to an unpleasant and uncomfortable exchange between us.
Throughout the day, Dawn Gallagher Murphy continued to display passive aggressive behaviour towards me, culminating in a disruptive interaction at TS Tech. Dawn Gallagher Murphy was very critical of the Mayor's attendance and expressed her displeasure to the TS Tech Director of Human Resources and Premier's staff, leaving me to apologize and mitigate….
Dawn Gallagher Murphy’s erratic and hostile behaviour continued, including unnecessary interruptions during my personal time, derogatory comments about colleagues, hanging up on me, and an overall toxic work environment that affected my health.” *
Teena Bogner has settled with Gallagher Murphy and won’t say a word about the terms of the settlement. But if other former employees who accuse the MPP of bullying and harassment step forward and talk to the local press this would be a gamechanger.
Spending taxpayers' dollars like a drunken sailor
Since her election Gallagher Murphy has spent taxpayers' money like a drunken sailor, spending tens of thousands of dollars on her "free BBQs". She parrots the usual PC line about fiscal responsibility but the record proves otherwise.
On 16 March 2023 Newmarket Today reported that in the first of her three “free” BBQs:
“Dawn Gallagher Murphy had the biggest single expense of any MPP in the last quarter, and racked up the fourth largest total expense claim in the province…”
In 2022 Gallagher Murphy brazenly accepted campaign donations from the developer Michael Rice who stood to make millions from the opening-up of the Greenbelt for development at Bathurst.
The Ford Government is deeply corrupt. It stifles debate, ignores rules and trashes conventions. Take just one example.
In August 2023 the Integrity Commissioner, David Wake, recommended the Ontario Legislature reprimand the former Housing Minister, Steve Clark, for his role in the Greenbelt scandal. The Ford Government never brought the recommendation to the floor of the Chamber for debate and a vote. (Photo right: Steve Clark)
Clark still hasn't been reprimanded.
Lawsuit
The news last week that a lawsuit has been brought by a developer against Steve Clark’s former Chief of Staff, Ryan Amato, who was at the centre of the Greenbelt scandal is met with a shrug of the shoulders.
But the RCMP investigation – ongoing since October 2023 - grinds on.
At some stage, there will be a day of reckoning.
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Note: *In Teena Bogner’s Statement of Complaint to the Ontario Labour Relations Board I have substituted “Dawn Gallagher Murphy” for the words “the Member” and personal pronouns as appropriate for the words “the Applicant”.
Photo: Dawn Gallagher Murphy, all smiles at the TS Tech event in Newmarket. But she was inwardly seething that Newmarket Mayor John Taylor had been invited. Teena Bogner says Gallagher Murphy displayed "passive aggressive behaviour towards me" throughout the day.
