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How many people in Newmarket have had Covid-19 – or have it now? 

I’m sorry. I haven’t a clue.

But, then again, no-one else knows either.

Historic data

York Region’s Covid webpage gives the results for PCR testing (polymerase chain reaction) which the Province transitioned away from on 31 December 2021. The data is historic. 

The official statistics do not pick up the vast majority of Covid cases. People who self-test using the widely available Rapid Antigen kit are not picked up.

The two key metrics

Instead, the Region uses two key metrics: (a) hospitalizations which is a measure of the severity of the illness and (b) wastewater analysis which purportedly measures prevalence.

I say “purportedly” in the light of this observation from Public Health Ontario:

“Wastewater surveillance for COVID-19, when combined with corresponding clinical testing and epidemiology data, may have potential for tracking or anticipating COVID-19 disease trends but is not yet recommended as a means to estimate prevalence. It is a rapidly evolving area of research and operationalization, and as an adjunct to clinical testing for assessing infection rates in a community”. (My underlining)

The Region’s website tells us that wastewater analysis comes from two catchment areas which, together, do not cover the entire Region. We are not told the size of the catchment area.

However, I must assume it is possible to extrapolate the findings across the region. Otherwise, what’s the point? 

How widespread is the virus?

The Toronto Star pulls together the latest data on Covid deaths, hospitalizations and vaccinations with the following caveat:

“On June 16, the Ontario Government halted daily COVID-19 data reporting, moving to weekly reports… Case counts are not included here. Reduced testing this year means that the number of cases shown is no longer an accurate reflection of how widespread the virus is.”

That hits the nail on the head.

There is probably a lot more Covid out there than we care to admit.

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See also Newmarket Today, 30 July 2022

Update on 1 August 2022: from Nature: How long is Covid infectious?

Update on 2 August 2022: The Globe & Mail editorial: The pandemic isn't over but now we are navigating it in the dark

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My request last Wednesday (20 July 2022) for a meeting with my MPP, Dawn Gallagher Murphy, to discuss Ford's "Strong Mayor" policy has elicited an unexpected response. 

"Thank you for taking the time to email the constituency office of MPP Dawn Gallagher Murphy. We know that today in Ontario, too many families are frozen out of the housing market. That’s why Ontario has a plan to build 1.5 million homes over the next 10 years and continue to explore ways to help municipalities get more homes built faster.

We appreciate your interest in meeting MPP Elliott. Could you please forward a telephone number so we can discuss the matter further?"

I have zero interest in meeting Christine Elliott.

But I have one or two reasons for meeting her former Office Manager.

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Update on 29 July 2022: A Dialogue with Dawn - 30 June 2022.  For Dawn it is all new and bright and exciting. 

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I can now confidently predict that Britain’s Foreign Secretary, Liz Truss, will win the Conservative Leadership contest on 5 September 2022 and become Prime Minister, replacing the serial liar, Boris Johnson. (Photo shows Truss in TV debate earlier today when the presenter fainted in front on her.)

Her opponent, Rishi Sunak, the former Chancellor of the Exchequer, did well amongst Conservative MPs but didn’t land a knock-out blow. Since 2001 Conservative leaders have been decided by the membership-at-large, choosing from a shortlist of two who emerge top in a series of ballots amongst Conservative MPs.

Older, Whiter, Wealthier

Britain’s next PM will now be decided by a tiny sub-set of the UK population: older, whiter and wealthier than your average Briton. And, by definition, a lot more Conservative. Are they going to vote for the UK’s first PM of South Asian descent? 

I don't think so. They will not vote for Sunak – the man who triggered the revolt against Boris Johnson when he abruptly resigned as Chancellor. And until very recently, his wife, who is independently wealthy, did not pay full UK tax on her worldwide income as she claimed domicile in India. This device allowed her to pay tax only on her income which arose in the UK or was remitted (or brought in) to the UK leaving the rest of her vast fortune untouched. The optics are very, very bad.

What it takes to become UK Prime Minister: 92,153 votes

In the Conservative members’ ballot in 2019, when Boris Johnson ran against Jeremy Hunt for the leadership, Johnson won by 92,153 (66.4%) votes to Hunt’s 46,656 (33.6%) in a ballot where 87.4% of Conservative members voted.

The number of Conservatives who put Johnson in Number 10 is slightly more than the population of Newmarket, Ontario.

In the UK, candidates for the Conservative leadership (and, therefore, for Prime Minister) cannot sell memberships as a way of boosting support within the Party. There is a cut-off date three months before the contest begins, after which members cannot participate in the election. Seems fair enough to me.

Harper anoints Poilievre

Meanwhile, here in Canada the Conservative leadership race chunters on – though, in reality, it is all over bar the shouting.

Stephen Harper has anointed Pierre “bitcoin” Poilievre, the man who is going to make Canada the freest country in the world.

Poilievre sold way more memberships than Brown or Charest or any of the others so he is clearly our “Prime Minister in Waiting”. 

It’s game, set and match for the super-salesman.

In time, people will forget that the contest was embarrassing and deeply corrupt.

It's just the way (some) political parties do things.

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Update on 27 July 2022: From the Globe & Mail's Andrew Coyne: The CPC has just engineered its own takeover

Update on 28 July 2022: From the Globe & Mail: Harper didn't address "batty" Poilievre policies...

Update on 29 July 2022: From the Globe & Mail: Conservatives say they have over 600,000 members - a record.

and the G&M Editorial on 30 July 2022: A leadership race that's no contest

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Friday 22 July 2022 was just like any other day.  

Except for that cough.

My voice had also dropped a thousand octaves making me sound like Vincent Price in one of these old black and white horror movies.

I knew that something was seriously amiss.

My temperature was 103.3°

You could have fried an egg on my forehead.

I slept for 12 hours straight.

Covid-19 Positive

A second Rapid Antigen test on Saturday morning confirmed what we already knew. I was positive.

Bad news.

York Region's Medical Officer of Health, Dr Barry Pakes, tells us we are now in the 7th wave and we have to keep our guard up. Here he offers advice on how to keep the dreaded virus at bay. (It is also the portal to Covid statistics)

I still don't know how I caught it.

I've been Pfizered four times - the maximum possible for someone of my age.

So now I am self isolating.

I don't feel too unwell. Just a general feeling of lassitude.

Looking out the window and waiting for Vincent Price to go away.

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We live off London Road in Newmarket and every summer grey bearded pensioners become part of my life.    

London Road runs through a residental neighbourhood but over the years it has turned into a heavily trafficked arterial. I could live with that were it not for the noise.

Sitting astride their over-chromed Harley Davidsons I hear the pensioners coming long before I see them.

They arrive at my intersection, phut, phut, phutting, gunning the engine, revving up three or four times to make sure we know they are there. Then they gently move off at a stately 10-15kph. Roaring as they go.

They could be blowing smoke in my face or giving me the finger.

Old Men going Nowhere

Worse. They are not going anywhere. These old men are cruising the Town.

Why don’t they just disappear? Preferably out of Ontario.

The seniors on Harley Davidsons are the most intrusive and irritating. But close behind are the boy racers whose standard-issue cars are modified to make us notice them. Giant mufflers. Rap with an ear-splitting thudding bass.

Toronto's Noise Review

Earlier this week Toronto City Council told us they intend to conduct a “noise review” next year and they will be asking the Province to address the problem of excessive vehicle noise and illegally modified vehicles.

They are also looking at new regulations which would allow the Council to launch

“a noise activated camera/automated noise enforcement pilot project”.

That is terrific news.

Enforcement Blitz

The City Council has also requested:

“the Toronto Police Services Board conduct additional joint vehicle enforcement blitzes with bylaw enforcement and explore equipping police officers with sound level meters to support enforcement of vehicle noise. The City will also educate licensed car repair facilities that muffler cut-outs, straight exhausts, gutted mufflers, Hollywood mufflers, by-passes and similar devices are prohibited under the Highway Traffic Act.”

This makes my heart sing.

Similar initiatives are happening in progressive cities around the globe. And, increasingly, here at home people are are saying enough is enough.

The Grey-Beards and the Boy-Racers have had it their own way for far too long.

It’s time to put a sock in it.

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