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Written by Gordon Prentice

Published: 24 September 2016

Yesterday, in his campaign blog, Ward 5 hopeful Tom Pearson tells us:

 Main St. Clock Tower Developers Revamp Plans

I have asked Tom to explain in what way the developer has revamped his plan compared to the application that was submitted to the Council months ago.

I helpfully give him the link to the Town’s website where the details of the application are posted. I shall let you know what he says as soon as I hear from him.

Sincere but misinformed

Tom comes across as sincere (his campaign slogan is “I really do care”) but he is, alas, woefully misinformed. 

Material which has been in the public domain for ages is a revelation to Tom. Where on earth has he been these past months?

Our well-meaning but credulous candidate has swallowed the Forrest development proposal hook, line and sinker.

Five storeys “not plausible”

Tom says he was in discussion with Colleen Forrest (Bob’s wife). Tom tells her he thinks the OMB might go for five floors. Why couldn’t the Clock Tower go down to five? She tells him “it was not plausible” and “they’ve already revised it to the lowest possible footprint manageable”.

She tells him five storeys is not on the table. Fair enough, says Tom.

Tom says the development would be built on “hard glacial till found 45 ft deep”. This is an interesting little nugget of a factoid and we all wait for further details.

Tom says the Forrest Group used the services of

“a respected Historical Architect, Chris Borgal of Goldsmith, Borgal and Company… and (I) am satisfied it’s (the proposed development) being built in accordance with the Heritage Conservation District guidelines”.

Wrong again.

The Heritage Impact Assessment from Goldsmith Borgal and Company Ltd, Architects, commissioned by Forrest makes it clear that the proposed development does not meet the Heritage Conservation District Plan in terms of height restrictions.

220 inquiries

Tom goes on to tell us that the development, if it ever gets built, will be a condo. Apparently there were “over 220 inquiries from a mix of younger and older residents for condo units”. He doesn’t tell us how many wanted rental or “a mixed housing model” which is his preference.

Tom concludes by telling us:

“I can stick to holding my vote at 3 floors, however that initial plan was made not knowing all the variables we know today, including the ability to build underground parking spots and traffic studies indicators that seem to show it can be handled.”

The “variables” that Tom has only now discovered have been part and parcel of Bob Forrest’s toxic plan for absolutely ages.

No point mincing words.

Tom Pearson’s endorsement of the proposed Clock Tower development is, I am afraid, utterly worthless.

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Written by Gordon Prentice

Published: 21 September 2016

To the BIA* meeting at the Community Centre in Doug Duncan Drive to hear Ward 5 hopeful, Peter Geibel, tell the downtown’s business people why Bob Forrest should relocate his planned Clock Tower development from Main Street to the tennis courts, a couple of hundred metres away from where he is speaking.

The room is as bright as a dental surgery and, for Peter Geibel, just as unforgiving.

Every Committee member gets a folder detailing Peter’s plan but there is no big screen to tell the rest of us what is in it.

Now the no-nonsense chair of the BIA, Glenn Wilson, gets things underway and Peter is soon telling committee members how moving the proposed development is a win for everyone. He says he hasn’t yet met Bob Forrest.

I can think of a thousand things about Peter’s Plan that demand an answer.

I expect lots of questions but, instead, there is a terrible listlessness as if members really can’t be bothered to engage with Peter’s Plan.

Ann Martin asks him where he lives.

Mayoral confidant, Jackie Playter, innocently asks about the Town’s position.

Peter foresees a straight swap – the Town giving Bob the tennis court lands and getting the Clock Tower lands in exchange. The three storey height cap would stay and the retail units at 184-194 Main Street South could be done up and used, say, by medical types such as chiropractors. The details, of course, need to be filled in but that is the general approach.

Instead of a robust and lively exchange of views on Peter’s Plan there is a studied indifference.

And that is a lot more difficult to take.

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*The BIA is Newmarket’s downtown’s business improvement area committee. The BIA met on 20 September 2016.

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Written by Gordon Prentice

Published: 20 September 2016

Health Warning: I have extracted these statistics for Newmarket Ward 5 from Elections Canada tables on voting in Newmarket Aurora at the last Federal Election in 2015 – the last time people in the Ward actually voted. The map below shows the polling districts in Ward 5 which I have married up with the votes cast.

I am sure there are errors of mine in what follows but the big picture is clear. Ward 5, like Newmarket as a whole, seems to be a pretty middle-of-the-road kind of place. 

There is, of course, no read across from the results of a Federal Election in Ward 5 and a municipal by-election.

Most obviously, the turnout is way down for a municipal election.

But the information helps us paint a picture of the Ward when used in conjunction with the material we can extract from the census and the National Household Survey.

I have not wandered into the undergrowth comparing Ward 5 voting in the 2015 and 2011 Federal Elections but I suspect Ward 5 moved to the Liberals, mirroring sentiment across the riding and across the nation that it was time for a change.

No Party Tickets

Municipal elections are, of course, not fought on Party tickets but many of the candidates have an association with a political party.

The Ward 5 by-election is fascinating. There are seven candidates and one issue that dominates – the future of a planning application to redevelop the Clock Tower in the heart of Ward 5 in Newmarket’s historic Downtown.

The northern boundary of the Ward is Davis Drive and in the South, Mulock Drive. The Western boundary is Yonge Street and on the east, just beyond the railway track, Prospect Street and Bayview.

There are 7,985 people on the voters’ list. In the last Federal Election 4,256 people actually voted (excluding rejected ballots) giving a turnout of 53.2%

At the last municipal election in Ward 5 in 2014 there were four candidates who together got 3,198 votes. The turnout was 40%

The Eagle Street divide

The Ward has fairly uniform characteristics but with some subtle differences between its northern and southern parts. The natural north-south dividing line in Ward 5 is Eagle Street. There are 4,186 electors north of Eagle and 3,799 south. The turnout is higher in the south (57%) than in the north (50.3%). 

Overall, the Liberals took 45.5% of the vote in Ward 5 with the Conservatives trailing with 38.4%. The NDP took 11.3%, the Greens 3.4% and the Rev Dorian Baxter just over 1%.

The Liberals did better in the voting north of Eagle than south (46.2% to 44.3%).

The Conservatives did better south of Eagle than north (40.5% to 35.9%)

The Greens did better in the North of the Ward than in the south (4.1% to 2.6%) as did the NDP (12% to 10.5%)

Does this help us predict who is going to win the by-election on 17 October?

Hmmmm... no

The Dark Arts

There are lots of interesting variables. We have one candidate, Bob Kwapis, whose election signs are everywhere. The entire Ward has been carpet bombed. He is, quite literally, streets ahead of the competition. And yet this impressive display comes from a candidate who freely admits he is not a politician but a newcomer to elective politics. Bob Kwapis, it is fair to say, was not a household name before the by-election was called (other than in his own household) but now – thanks to the ubiquity of his lawn signs – he is clearly seen by many as the front runner.

The level of sophistication of his campaign so far is remarkable for a municipal election - with some residents even getting robo-calls (or voice-mail as we used to say).

For someone supposedly unversed in the dark arts of politics he is proving to be quite formidable.

Some of his lawn signs apparently went up without permission and they have come down. But the numbers overall have hardly been dented.

So, can the others catch up?

We are entering a period – leading up to the all-candidates debate on 4 October – when all seven will have to spell out in detail the answers to some disarmingly simple questions.

I shall be exploring these shortly.

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Written by Gordon Prentice

Published: 19 September 2016

It came as a bit of a shock.

Wasim Jarrah calls me out of the blue to say he is pulling out of the Ward 5 by-election race on his doctor’s recommendation. Goodness me!

The statement below, issued just a few moments ago, explains the reasons.

I didn't have the presence of mind to ask him if he was endorsing anyone else.

I was caught off guard.

Wasim's decision leaves seven in the race to succeed Joe Sponga as councillor for Ward 5.

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Statement from Wasim Jarrah withdrawing his candidacy

It is with regret that I must announce I am withdrawing my candidacy for the Newmarket ward 5 by-election on my doctor’s recommendation.

I have been suffering from a torn ACL in my knee and chronic pain in my back, and campaigning throughout these past few weeks has exacerbated the problem to the point where my doctor and I made the decision that I must prioritise my health and undertake the necessary surgery to correct the problem. I’m thirty-four years old, and it would be foolish to push through this issue and risk having a lifelong injury.

After meeting with my doctor on Saturday, I spent time with my family and I know this is the right decision to make.

This decision has not been made lightly, but I feel as if I need to make this decision to operate with integrity and transparency. I will not put my own interests before those of the community. If I am to serve the community it must be done with respect. Given that the recovery from my knee surgery will be lengthy and the remaining term of Council short, I feel I will not be able to represent the community that has entrusted me with their confidence in the way they expect.

I want to thank my supporters for all their dedication, best wishes and amazing volunteer efforts. My volunteers were truly the backbone of my campaign and I could not have accomplished what I did in such a short time without their support. We put together a fantastic campaign team and planned to announce a series of policy pieces focused on improving practical concerns in the ward. I am proud our campaign was positive, focused on policy and professional.

It has been a pleasure and a privilege to meet with residents to discuss ideas and concerns. I am honoured and thankful for the support I received.

As I said at my campaign launch, "Newmarket is the place my wife and I chose to call home. I’ve lived throughout the world, but this is the place we knew was right to start our family and raise our kids. I am grateful for this town, for the way it has welcomed an immigrant like me. I have always believed that it is important to give back, to serve the community. I am proud that my success in business allows me to contribute to a variety of community initiatives and charities to improve our town. That’s the Canadian ethic I am working to pass on to my two children: we are blessed to be in Canada, and we have a wonderful duty to give back to our community.”

I still believe very strongly in those Canadian values, and I look forward to continuing to contribute to this community as a private citizen and businessman.

I would also like to send my best wishes to all my fellow candidates as they continue to engage in the democratic process.